SIMULASI MONTE CARLO DALAM MEMPREDIKSI PESERTA DIDIK BARU ( STUDI KASUS DI SMKN 3 MUARA BUNGO )

Sari

Every year Vocational Secondary School 3 (SMKN 3) Muara Bungo conduct the process of admission of new students. Acceptance of New Learners (PPDB) is an early process in teaching and learning activities. The number of enthusiasts who follow the PPDB can not be ascertained in number in each year. So the school has difficulty in analyzing data of PPDB participants. By applying the monte carlo algorithm as a simulation to predict the number of new learners who will enroll in SMKN 3 Muara Bungo is expected to give good results to calculate the possibility that will occur in the process of acceptance of new learners. The purpose of this study is How to predict the amount of PPDB for the coming year. The data of this research comes from SMKN 3 Muara Bungo that is by taking data Number of new learners in last nine years,, Method to process data used is Monte Carlo, The result of this prediction can not be ascertained with the percentage because take from random number which then in try in some experiments as a simulation that will be applied to predict new learners next year. Monte Carlo simulations will be used in helping to simulate the possibilities that will occur in the number of new learners at SMKN 3 Muara Bungo by trying several experiments to assess the prediction of which random number is most appropriate in making this prediction.